Business Plan Sales Forecast - help

vcangell

So I`ve been working on a business plan for a comics, games, and hobbies retail store for a few months now. In the early days I even made some beginning posts back in August. I`m back now, I know a little bit now, but I still need some help. I need to come up with a sales forecast of some kind. I have a pretty good guesstimate of what one will look like, but the problem comes from the fact that I cannot back it up with some sort of real-world numbers. I`ve been in contact with several store owners, and industry leaders. No one is willing to or able to share sales forecast information. I was even told point blank by the National Retail Hobby Stores Association that nobody wants to know this information, and that it was "scary". Well, no doubt that it`s scary, but how can you run a retail store without some kind of idea about sales? So after that let down I tried a few databases, hoping that they might have the industry information I was looking for. Well, several hundred dollars later, I`ve got some very good information that will really help to give my plan some meat, and I now have some very realistic ideas of my goals (instead of guesses). But I still don`t have enough information for creating a sales forecast and able to back up that forecast with some real-world numbers.So, does anyone have any advice on building a sales forecast or ideas of where I could go to get this information? Of course any ideas, thoughts or otherwise are always appreciated.

Wirehead321

Well, I guess I can help I was in the comic and hobby business for ten years. If you are looking for facts about the industry http://www.icv2.com</A> I am using their data to set up a web site that will feature Anime, comics, toys, and video games. I am calling it Tomatovision TV. As I say before I was in the business for ten years. I also had to do a sales forecast. I also checked out convention attendance and the dealers at anime cons this year. For AnimeCentral in Chicago we had attendance of overv 13,000 fans. I also got market data from JETRO.org Japaneses Export Trade Organization. They use the data to see how well Manga are selling in the US. There are other routes I have taken to get my data. If I can of futher help contact me
Howard Lee

vcangell

That is the most positive news I have had this week. Would you mind sharing your sales forecast data at all or at the very least letting me know how you went about assembling the data? 

Wirehead321

First, you should start off your market datawith this one statement Anime products in the U.S.soldover $4 billion last year. Data from RightStuf and ADV Films. Then get datafrom the retail guide from ICV2.com they will mail you the data ask for Comic Retail data and Anime Manga both will give you a list of top comicsand manga in the US also visit the site to read what other comic retailers are doing. Both ICV2 and myself offer a consulting service for new retailer geeting into the business. By the way do you have a website in the creation that will reflect your business. What city are you in does it have a large comic/anime base or will you get most of your clients online. The reason I ask this is I had a client before who opened a retail store before the website. Store closed, but they could still sale, via a website it`s something to consider.Howard Lee

vcangell

I do have plenty of comic and games data, although more is always welcome. Where I am weak is in the hobby aspect, but I keep pluggin away on it. One way or another I`ll find that data. We will have a website that will "sister" with the brick and mortar. It is not in development as of yet, at this point that would be putting the cart before the horse. There is a good sized comic base in my area, and anime market is growing.

Wirehead321

Ok, I just had a few things to do I am working others companies to get grants for them it takes up time.When you mean hobby does that include model ships, die cars, trains, Hobbies is a broad range. You must narrow what hobbies items will I sell.As for get the website. It`s not putting the cart before horse the website can be your advertising for the store. In your business plan by having a website with a counter will let you know use of your site. Serve as your own market data. It`s all how you view a website it not a seperate part of your business but a detail of your business not to be over looked>< You can also get in touch with Piers Imports they can give you market data, price, and vendor information on any of your competition getting imports from anywhere in the world. But as I say before these things I do for my clients. If you are looking for more then. I would have to be a consulting/client bases think it over and email me or visit www.tomatovision.bravehost.com go to consulting for all of our prices.Hope to hear from you soon. Good luck on the shop. 

MattThomas

Do you have a good estimate on industry growth? How much has the industry grown (in sales, etc...) each year, percentage wise? When creating a sales forecast, you can use that figure to project future sales estimates.
The figures you have obtained, are they for the whole industry or just one regional area? If it is industry-wide, consider also getting some regional data, and even some sales data on the average store. That way you can have a better guess on the market share you would have and have a better idea as to where your brick and mortar store (and website) sales will start out. MattThomas1/20/2009 3:36 PM

Breakouttools

We have some great sales forecasting excel models at http://www.ustyleit.com/Sales_and_Product_Launch.htm

leo999

We`ve been using a consumer behaviour forecasting index to help us with our sales.  It`s a model that predicts consumer behaviour 7 days in advance. So far it has performed well for us.  They are at Mightyz com.  Hope this helps you out and good luck in your search!
 
Leo