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What do you do in the absence of statistics?

yourNAMEinDotComyourNAMEinDotCom subscriber Posts: 17
edited August 2008 in Business Planning
The Business Plan calls for a lot of market research. Market size, growth rate, etc.
What do you do when statistics are not available. For example, if you`re starting something no one has done before or a totally new industry or a new country where no one seems to keep updated statistics?
What do you put in the business plan? Your own guestimates? Would that fly with investors?
I appreciate the community`s answers to these questions.
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Comments

  • posylaneposylane subscriber Posts: 1
    Does the new industry replace an existing one?  Somewhere along the way most businesses serve a need and generally I would expect an estimate of the need, and the economic benifit provided.  I am not an investor but if I was and someone said their just was not statistics useful for the business plan, I`d doubt their credibility.  I`d say that person just did not have a good handle on the over all market.
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  • yourNAMEinDotComyourNAMEinDotCom subscriber Posts: 17
    Great, you`ve answered my question. It seems that estimating is OK in a business plan.
    Now, take a look at market share for example. The business plan calls for the market share to be spelled out. You might be able to use some point of reference to estimate market size but how do you find out  what percentage each of your competitors` control? In an industry where all the companies are private and have no need for disclosure, you`re just averaging, right?
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  • yourNAMEinDotComyourNAMEinDotCom subscriber Posts: 17
    It seems there aren`t many with international experience in the community. In many emerging markets, there are no reliable stats. You are fortunate in the US to have statistics for everything. However, overall you are right. One has to be creative. I just wanted to know if creativity with statistics is an OK thing to do in a business plan. It seems it is. Thanks for your help.
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